Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction, October 28, 2026: Can the Three-Loss Breisgauers Avoid a Cup Shock Against the In-Form Wolves? 🏆

Freiburg vs Wolfsburg Prediction: Match Preview

Freiburg welcome Wolfsburg to the Europa-Park Stadion on Wednesday evening for a DFB-Pokal second-round tie that has become an unexpected test of character for the hosts. Julian Schuster’s side have lost three consecutive matches across all competitions—against Bayer Leverkusen, Monaco, and Bayern Munich—and the coach is hoping the cup can provide the spark to reignite their season. Wolfsburg, by contrast, arrive in Breisgau unbeaten in their last four matches, having scored 13 goals in that sequence, though they ply their trade in the 2. Bundesliga following relegation. The historical record offers the visitors a curious comfort: Freiburg have lost both of their previous DFB-Pokal meetings with Wolfsburg, both away from home, in 2006 and 2015.

Match Information 📋

Match: SC Freiburg vs VfL Wolfsburg
Competition: Germany: DFB-Pokal – 1/16-finals
Date: Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Kick-off: 18:00 CET (17:00 BST)
Venue: Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg
Our Prediction: Freiburg 2-1 Wolfsburg

Head-to-Head Record 📋

The overall record is finely balanced across 45 competitive meetings, with Freiburg winning 19, Wolfsburg 16, and 10 draws. However, recent league form favours the hosts: Freiburg have lost just two of their last ten matches against Wolfsburg, including a 4-3 victory in December 2025 and a 1-1 draw in May 2026. The cup record, however, belongs emphatically to the visitors, who have won both previous Pokal encounters.

Freiburg Form 🔵

Last 5: L-L-L-W-W

Freiburg’s season has hit a bump after an imperious start. The 3-1 defeat to Bayern Munich on Sunday was their third consecutive loss, following a 2-1 setback at Leverkusen and a 3-0 humbling in Monaco. Despite the slump, Schuster’s side remain third in the Bundesliga and have scored 3.5 goals per game across their recent sample, with an xG of 2.94 and an xGA of just 0.39. The cup represents a welcome distraction and a chance to reach the last 16 for the fourth time in five seasons.

Team News: Yannik Engelhardt is available again after missing the Bayern defeat with a pelvic contusion. Bruno Ogbus and Berkay Yilmaz have returned to training but are not yet options. Schuster has refused to name his goalkeeper, insisting he has “no classic cup keeper” and will assess the situation.

Wolfsburg Form ⚪

Last 5: D-W-D-W-D

Wolfsburg’s form is strong, even if their league position is not. The Wolves are unbeaten in four matches, with Fabian Reese, Robert Glatzel, and Alexander Bernhardsson identified by Schuster as their primary attacking threats. Their 1-1 draw at Bochum was a minor stumble, but the 2. Bundesliga side have scored 13 goals in their last four matches. Their away record is less convincing: two draws and a defeat in their last three on the road.

Team News: Mattias Svanberg is out until mid-November with a muscular issue, while Yannick Gerhardt and Vinicius Souza are expected to anchor midfield. Robert Glatzel could be rested given his workload, with Shiogai a potential alternative up front.

Team News & Predicted Lineups 📰

Freiburg Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Müller; Kübler, Rosenfelder, Lienhart, Makengo; Eggestein, Osterhage; Beste, Suzuki, Grifo; Matanović

Schuster is expected to rotate after the Bayern defeat. Müller could start in goal, while Matanović leads the line with Grifo and Beste providing creativity.

Wolfsburg Predicted Lineup (4-2-3-1)

Weilenreuther; Kumbedi, Wahl, Cleiton, Maehle; Gerhardt, Souza; Bernhardsson, Damar, Reese; Shiogai

With Glatzel potentially rested, Shiogai starts up front. Reese and Bernhardsson provide the width, with Damar operating behind the striker.

xG & Tactical Analysis 📈

The statistical models give Freiburg a commanding 62% win probability, with the draw at 22% and Wolfsburg at just 16%. Freiburg’s xG of 2.94 dwarfs Wolfsburg’s 2.04, and their xGA of 0.39 is among the best defensive figures in the competition. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 to Freiburg (8.8%), followed by 3-1 (5.88%) and 2-0 (5.31%).

The key battle will be Freiburg’s attacking transitions against Wolfsburg’s defensive structure. The visitors have conceded seven goals in their last four matches, and Freiburg’s 10.5 shots on target per game represents a significant step up in quality. However, Freiburg’s recent defensive frailties—conceding three to Bayern—suggest Wolfsburg will get chances. Both Teams to Score carries a 68.8% probability.

Betting Analysis 💰

Freiburg are clear favourites at 1.37, with Wolfsburg at 4.90 and the draw at 4.20. The market reflects the gulf in league position and home advantage. Both Teams to Score at 1.55 is the standout angle given the 68% probability and both sides’ scoring records. Over 2.5 goals at 1.45 reflects the likelihood of an open contest, with Freiburg’s matches averaging over three goals.

Final Prediction 🏁

Freiburg 2-1 Wolfsburg

This is a fixture where Freiburg’s superior individual quality and home advantage should prove decisive, but their recent three-match losing run and Wolfsburg’s cup hoodoo ensure it will be far from straightforward. Schuster has emphasised the cup’s capacity to “release forces for the league,” and the Europa-Park Stadion crowd will demand a response to the Bayern defeat.

Wolfsburg will not go quietly. Their unbeaten run and attacking output—13 goals in four matches—make them dangerous underdogs, and the memory of those two previous Pokal victories over Freiburg will fuel belief. But the gulf in class, combined with Freiburg’s need to halt their slide, should carry the hosts through.

Prediction: Freiburg 2-1 Wolfsburg. Matanović opens the scoring for the hosts, Glatzel equalises for the visitors, and Grifo seals the points in the second half as Freiburg advance to the last 16 and rediscover their winning touch.