Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag Prediction – Champions League Round 3 Preview, Lineups & Analysis

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⚽ Athletic Bilbao vs Qarabag – Champions League Round 3 Preview

The UEFA Champions League League Phase continues on October 21, 2025, with an intriguing clash between Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag FK at the Estadio San Mamés in Bilbao. The Basque side, back in Europe’s elite competition for the first time in several years, are aiming to strengthen their campaign against the resilient Azerbaijani champions.

For Athletic Bilbao, this match presents a golden opportunity to claim three points on home soil and stay in contention for qualification. Meanwhile, Qarabag, a team known for defying expectations in European football, travel to Spain with hopes of snatching a vital result against one of LaLiga’s most intense and passionate teams. 🔥

🔴 Athletic Bilbao – Strong, Disciplined, and Ready to Impress

2025 has been a promising year for Athletic Bilbao under manager Ernesto Valverde, who continues to blend the club’s traditional Basque philosophy with modern tactics. The team currently sits in the top half of LaLiga and has performed admirably in Europe, collecting 4 points from their first two Champions League matches — a 2–0 home win against Salzburg and a 1–1 draw at Olympiacos.

Bilbao’s strength lies in their defensive solidity and intense pressing, anchored by Iñigo Martínez and Yeray Álvarez at the back. Their midfield engine, led by Oihan Sancet and Unai Vencedor, provides balance and energy, while the attacking duo of Iñaki Williams and Nico Williams brings explosive pace and flair on the wings.

At home, Bilbao are a force. The atmosphere at San Mamés — affectionately called La Catedral — is known for inspiring passionate performances. The crowd will expect nothing less than victory against Qarabag. 💪

⚫ Qarabag – The Underdogs with European Grit

Azerbaijani champions Qarabag FK continue to carry the flag for their country in European competition. Managed by Gurban Gurbanov, who has been at the helm for more than a decade, Qarabag have built a reputation as a well-drilled and tactically disciplined team.

In 2025, Qarabag have maintained their domestic dominance and started their Champions League campaign with a 0–0 draw against Club Brugge and a narrow 1–2 loss to Bayer Leverkusen. While they often struggle away from home, Qarabag are known for their resilience and ability to frustrate technically superior opponents.

Their defensive organization, compact midfield, and counterattacking pace through Leandro Andrade and Juninho can pose a threat, especially if Bilbao leave space behind their full-backs. However, surviving the high pressing and intensity of Bilbao at San Mamés will be a real test.

⚔️ Head-to-Head Record

This will be the first-ever official meeting between Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag FK. The Spanish side have limited experience against Azerbaijani teams, while Qarabag have previously faced Spanish opposition in the Europa League — notably Sevilla and Villarreal — but without managing a victory.

This fresh encounter adds intrigue, with both clubs representing contrasting football cultures: Bilbao’s pressing and possession-based style versus Qarabag’s defensive structure and counterplay.

🧩 Predicted Lineups

Athletic Bilbao (4–2–3–1):

Goalkeeper: Unai Simón
Defenders: De Marcos, Yeray Álvarez, Iñigo Martínez, Yuri Berchiche
Midfielders: Unai Vencedor, Dani García
Attacking Midfielders: Nico Williams, Oihan Sancet, Alex Berenguer
Forward: Iñaki Williams

Qarabag (4–3–3):

Goalkeeper: Shahruddin Mahammadaliyev
Defenders: Qara Garayev, Kevin Medina, Bahlul Mustafazade, Toral Bayramov
Midfielders: Patrick Andrade, Marko Vešović, Richard Almeida
Forwards: Juninho, Leandro Andrade, Ramil Sheydayev

Both teams are expected to stick to their traditional tactical setups — Bilbao pressing high and attacking with width, Qarabag defending deep and countering quickly.

🧠 Tactical Breakdown

Athletic Bilbao’s Approach:

  • Control possession and press Qarabag high up the pitch.

  • Utilize wing play through Nico and Iñaki Williams to stretch Qarabag’s defense.

  • Rely on Sancet’s creativity and quick interchanges in the final third.

Qarabag’s Strategy:

  • Stay compact and disciplined in a low block.

  • Exploit counterattack opportunities through Andrade and Juninho.

  • Use set-pieces and long balls to challenge Bilbao’s defensive line.

Expect Bilbao to dominate possession and territory, while Qarabag aim to frustrate and exploit mistakes. The key battle will be between Bilbao’s full-backs and Qarabag’s fast wingers.

🔮 Match Prediction

  • Full-Time Score: Athletic Bilbao 2–0 Qarabag

  • Both Teams to Score: ❌ No

  • Over/Under 2.5 Goals: ✅ Over 2.5

  • Key Player: Nico Williams (Athletic Bilbao)

Bilbao’s superior quality, home advantage, and attacking energy should see them through comfortably. Qarabag will resist early on but are likely to be overwhelmed by Bilbao’s intensity and crowd-driven momentum in the second half.

🏁 Conclusion

The Champions League encounter between Athletic Bilbao and Qarabag FK promises a night of passion and pride at the San Mamés. Bilbao’s return to Europe has been marked by discipline and determination, and this fixture offers a prime chance to strengthen their qualification hopes.

Qarabag will defend bravely and seek a counterpunch, but the Basque side’s power, pace, and pressing should prove decisive. Expect an emotional night in Bilbao — and another European victory for the Lions. 🦁

Final Prediction: Athletic Bilbao 2–0 Qarabag – Bilbao’s pressing and home strength secure a vital win to keep their Champions League momentum alive. ✨