Belgium vs France Prediction: Can the Red Devils Finally End Their Five-Match Losing Streak?

Belgium vs France Prediction: Match Preview

Belgium and France meet at the King Baudouin Stadium on Monday in a Nations League A1 clash that pits two new managerial eras against each other. Mark van Bommel’s Belgium opened their campaign with an impressive 2-0 victory in Rome against Italy, while Zinedine Zidane’s France edged Turkey 1-0 in Kocaeli. However, both sides enter this fixture with significant attacking absentees, and history heavily favours the visitors in this rivalry.

Match Information 📋

Match: Belgium vs France
Competition: UEFA Nations League A1
Date: Monday, 28 September 2026
Kick-off: 19:45 BST
Venue: King Baudouin Stadium, Brussels
Our Prediction: Belgium 1-2 France

Our Prediction 🎯

Belgium 1-2 France

Main Betting Angle: France to win & both teams to score

Key Reasoning: France’s five-match winning streak against Belgium and superior squad depth should prove decisive, even without Kylian Mbappe.

Head-to-Head Record 📋

The historical record between these two neighbours is remarkably balanced, but the recent trend is emphatically one-sided. Across 78 meetings, Belgium have won 30, France have won 29, and 19 have ended in draws.

However, France have won the last five encounters, a streak that includes the 2018 World Cup semi-final, the 2024 Euro round of 16, and both Nations League meetings in the previous campaign. Belgium’s last victory over France came in a June 2015 friendly, a 4-3 thriller in Saint-Denis.

Belgium Form 🔵

Last 5 matches: W-W-W-L-W

Mark van Bommel’s tenure began with a statement victory in Rome. Mika Godts opened the scoring before Dodi Lukebakio sealed the win, with goalkeeper Senne Lammens producing six saves to preserve the clean sheet. The Belgian press praised the team’s high pressing and quick transitions, which suffocated Italy’s build-up play.

Belgium’s home record is formidable: they have lost just one of their last 12 home matches. However, they have kept only one clean sheet in their last five attempts.

France Form ⚪

Last 5 matches: W-W-D-W-W

Zinedine Zidane’s France career began with a narrow victory in Turkey. Kylian Mbappe scored the decisive goal but was forced off injured, handing the captain’s armband to Ousmane Dembele. The performance was described as controlled rather than spectacular, with France dominating possession but struggling to create clear chances.

France have three clean sheets in their last five matches, a testament to the defensive partnership of Dayot Upamecano and Jules Kounde. Their away form is solid, with just one defeat in their last six matches on the road.

Team News & Expected Lineups 📰

Belgium Predicted Lineup (4-1-4-1)

Lammens; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Raskin; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Tielemans, Moreira; De Ketelaere

Van Bommel confirmed that Leandro Trossard and Mike Penders remain unavailable, with Trossard suffering from a bone edema in his heel and Penders nursing a quadriceps injury. Amadou Onana and Jeremy Doku are also absent. Kevin De Bruyne remains the creative fulcrum after creating five chances against Italy.

France Predicted Lineup (4-3-3)

Maignan; Kounde, Upamecano, Lacroix, Diouf; Cherki, Kone, Rabiot; Olise, Dembele, Doue

Zidane confirmed he will rotate his squad, stating: “There will definitely be changes. How many, you will see tomorrow”. Kylian Mbappe has left the camp with a knee tendon injury and will be replaced by Désiré Doué in the front three. William Saliba, Aurelien Tchouameni, Warren Zaire-Emery, and Ibrahima Konate are also unavailable. Ousmane Dembele captains the side for the first time.

Key Stats 📊

• France winning streak vs Belgium: 5 consecutive victories

• Belgium home record: Lost just 1 of last 12 home matches

• France clean sheets: 3 in last 5 matches

  

• Both teams to score: 61.24% probability

• Over 2.5 goals: 64.91% probability

Tactical Analysis 📈

The match will be defined by Belgium’s high-pressing intensity against France’s rotational depth.

Van Bommel’s system relies on aggressive pressing and rapid transitions, as demonstrated in Rome. De Bruyne and Tielemans will look to exploit spaces behind France’s advanced full-backs, while Lukebakio’s pace on the right wing poses a constant threat.

France will look to control possession and exploit Belgium’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly from set-pieces. Without Mbappe, the attacking burden falls on Dembele, Olise, and Doue, a trio that combines pace, creativity, and directness. Zidane’s decision to rotate should not significantly weaken the side given France’s squad depth.

The key battle will be Belgium’s pressing against France’s midfield rotation. If the Red Devils can win the ball high up the pitch, they have the quality to punish France. However, France’s superior individual quality and recent dominance in this fixture suggest they will find a way through.

Betting Analysis 💰

Result: France Win

Goals: Over 2.5

Both Teams to Score: Yes

Statistical models give Belgium a 44.5% win probability, with France at 33.47% and a draw at 21.99%. However, bookmakers favour France at 1.96, with Belgium at 3.50 and the draw at 3.95.

The Both Teams to Score market is rated at 61.24%, while Over 2.5 goals has a 64.91% probability. The most likely correct score is a 2-1 Belgium victory (8.24%), followed by 1-2 France (7.74%).

Final Prediction 🏁

Belgium 1-2 France

France’s five-match winning streak against Belgium, superior squad depth, and tactical flexibility under Zidane make them marginal favourites, even without Mbappe. Belgium’s impressive victory in Rome and home advantage offer genuine hope, but the Red Devils have not beaten France in over a decade.

Expect an entertaining, high-intensity contest with goals at both ends. France’s quality and recent dominance in this fixture should prove decisive, with Dembele and Olise providing the attacking spark.

Prediction: Belgium 1-2 France. The Red Devils’ wait for a victory over their neighbours continues, while Zidane’s France maintain their perfect start to the Nations League campaign.